Kliff Kingsbury is back and he has ditched the Air Raid for a new offensive system, and it has the potential to make Jayden Daniels the most electric quarterback Washington Fans have seen since rookie RG III.
When we analyze how rookie quarterbacks will pair with their new offensive coordinators, we first research towhat kind of scheme a coach implements, and then overlay the qua rterback’s strengths into that system to highlight why the OC/QB relationship might work. However, this analysis is differenct, because there are almost no articles on the offense Kliff Kingsbury is going to run in Washington.
I know his offense has always been labeled as the Air Raid offense, but in interviews he has done since joining the Washington Commanders, he has tried to distance himself as far away from that label as possible. This is what he told “Pro Football Talk” back in February: “The Air Raid deal, I’m honored to be a part of that because it was Mike Leach and I have a tremendous amount of respect for him. I wouldn’t categorize anything we do under that name.” So, if he’s not running the Air Raid, then what offense is he going to use and how can it maximize Jayden Daniels’ potential?
Kliff Kingsbury and the Spread Offense
We combed through the Commanders’ offseason additions and paired that with the offense that Kingsbury implemented during his tenure with the Arizona Cardinals to find the conclusion. We will more than likely see the Washington Commanders utilize some version of the Pro-Style Spread offense. Why? We figured he wasn’t going to stray too far from what he knew. We’re sorry to disappoint you if you were hoping to see the Wing-T or Triple Option. 😉
We believe he will use the spread for three important reasons:
The first is obvious; it’s the system that Jayden Daniels r an at LSU, and we know the Heisman-level type of success he had there. It should feel the most natural for him as he adjusts to the NFL level.
The second reason is the players that the Washington Commanders have brought in this offseason perfectly align with the personnel requirements of the Pro-Style Spread Offense. Luke McCaffrey is a shifty, sure-handed slot receiver who can replace the production of Curtis Samuel when they are in 11 personnel. The additions of Zach Ertz and Ben Sinnott give Kliff Kingsbury two match-up nightmares at the tight end position when he wants to roll with 12 personnel. To cap it off, by bringing in Austin Eckler, the Washington Commanders have a legit receiving weapon out of the backfield if they want to go with an empty set to spread the defense out and run QB Power.
The third reason — Kliff Kingsbury has actually been running the spread for years now. When he initially got to Arizona, the Cardinals ranked first in the usage of 10 personnel, a common staple of the Air Raid, but by his third year with Arizona, the team relied more on 11 personnel and two tight-end formations than rolling with 10 personnel every play. Also, as the name implies, the Air Raid is known for throwing the ball at an extremely high rate, utilizing short passes and screens instead of a lot of complex runs.
In Kliff Kingsbury’s first season with the Arizona Cardinals, his offense ranked 19th in rushing attempts and 1st in screen passes by a thirty-point margin, but by 2021, his offense had moved all the way up to 7th in rushing attempts and finished 5th in screen passes. Kingsbury has constantly updated his offense to better fit the NFL. By the time he left Arizona in 2022, his system looked more like Pro-Style Spread Offense rather than the college Air Raid offense he initially made his name on.
Every sign points to us seeing a variation of the spread offense when Jayden Daniels takes his first snaps as a member of the Washington Commanders. So, the next question is, it worked at LSU, but will it work in the NFL?
Jayden Daniels’ Adjustment to the NFL
The answer is… absolutely, and as a Washington Commanders fan, you have seen this firsthand.
When Robert Griffin III took the league by storm in 2012, everyone believed it was because of the new offense Mike Shanahan had created for him. The reality is that it was the same offense the Shanahans had been calling for years, but there was a new wrinkle. RGIII was able to create mismatches in the run game that didn’t exist before. Once those mismatches were exploited enough, it opened other parts of the offense, like the play-action pass.
Well, you can apply that same idea to Jayden Daniels and the Spread offense. By spreading out defenses, you naturally create more 1-on-1 matchups, and Jayden Daniels is a match-up nightmare himself. He is an extremely talented runner, which defenses must account for unless they want him to hit homerun shots. That puts more pressure on defenders to execute their assignments correctly or risk ending up on a “SickEditz” YouTube video.
Obviously, this isn’t some new idea. You have seen this play out with other quarterbacks like RGIII or Justin Fields. But, if it didn’t work for those guys, why would it for Jayden Daniels? Simply put, those guys weren’t great as passers. They weren’t good enough at reading defenses and managing pressure. Therefore, when they were asked to lead an offense with their arms, the offense stalled. That is the difference with Jayden Daniels; he is a more developed passer than RGIII and Justin Fields Fields.
Jayden Daniels can quickly identify favorable match-ups and take advantage of them. Running a Spread offense allows Jayden Daniels to maximize his talents as a runner and a passer. We aren’t the only ones who think that either. In Lance Zierlein’s overview of Jayden Daniels, he writes: “He lacks ideal size and arm talent, but he’s much more capable as a runner and passer than most of the quarterbacks who have moved on to the next level lately. Daniels is positioned to become a very good NFL starter in a spread-based passing attack.”
So, this leaves only one question, how good can he be?
Jayden Daniels’ Ceiling is HIGH
Based on the situation he is in, we don’t think it is that crazy to have offensive rookie of the year aspirations.
If Kliff Kingsbury enables Jayden Daniels to push the ball down the field and uses his legs to create explosive plays, he could challenge Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Why? Jayden Daniels has fantastic weapons around him to showcase his abilities well, despite losing Jahan Dotson to a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles.
In the passing game, Terry McLaurin have to be one of the best deep-threat weapons in the NFL. Jayden Daniels will also have a talented veteran tight end in Zach Ertz, and a rookie tight end that can line up all over the field in Ben Sinnott. As well as two guys in Eckler and McCaffery who should eat underneath with all of the space they will have to operate with.
In the run game, Brian Robinson is a solid between-the-tackles runner who would allow Jayden Daniels to attack the edge with the read-option.
If Jayden Daniels can stay healthy, a problem he didn’t have in college, it could very likely come down to him and Caleb Williams for the Rookie of the Year award at the end of the season.